My third published article

Libya In The Throngs Of Change

March 25, 2011

By The Companion

“Blame the era in which we live, don’t blame me. I am going and I will not be coming back. Notice I haven’t cried and no tears have fallen from my eyes. There is no room fro reproach or blame in the ages of treachery in the People’s land. I am not feeling normal and not in my right state. I am travelling and I ask who leads the travel to forget.”

These are part of expression posted by the Tunisian

Youth Mohammed Bouazizi in Face book

addressing his mother before he committed

suicide. The repercussions of his suicide led to the

revolution in Tunisia.

The shock wave of the Egyptian and Tunisian revolution

has now started its tsunami effect in Libya with the

opposition gaining ground. The protests that broke out in

the major cities like Benghazi have now reached the

outskirts of the capital Tripoli. The 42 year regime of

Muammar Al Ghaddafi is under serious threat. He has

resorted to violence to curb the protests which in turn has

resulted in the initiation of a civil-war like situation.

Libya’s strongman Muammar Al Ghaddafi who came to

power through the 1969 coup was indeed a leader of the

people in the initial stages. His determination for Arab

Nationalism which he gave up after two decades won him

many laurels among the Arabs.

Libya’s oil riches and tiny population – Libya has the

world’s ninth largest known deposits and just 6.5 million

people – allowed him to spend money freely on pet causes,

including the PLO and a number of Islamic groups.

Relatively little was spent on his people: a Gallup poll

released last year showed that 29% of young Libyans were

unemployed and 93% described their condition as

‘struggling’ or suffering. Even a large section of the society

is living on an income of less than two dollars at present.

Libya’s eastern part which was the power centre of

King Idris who was toppled by Ghaddafi in 1969, felt the

weight of discrimination under Ghaddafi. The Gadhafa tribe

to which Ghaddafi belongs, residing in Tripoli got much of

the benefits during Ghaddafi rule. So, there is no amusement

that the revolt started from Benghazi, east of Libya.

Human rights issue has also sparked the present

rebellion. The detention of Fathi Tebril, a human rights

lawyer based in Benghazi was the ignition that fuelled the

rebellion. He represented the families of around 1000

inmates who were killed in 1966 by the regime in Tripoli in

Abu Slim prison. The families of the inmates participated

in a planned protest following the detention of Fathi Tebril.

The youth in Libya has been inspired by the dethroning

of the dictatorship in the neighbouring countries. They have

realised that with careful preparations changes in the

traditional and dominant political structures is indeed possible.

Unlike the Tunisian and Egyptian youth the Libyan

youth has resorted to the use of a popular football site to

plan and organize the protests.

Another catalyst that has fuelled the recent uprisings

can be attributed to the offensive policy of the regime

towards its opponents abroad. Libyan expatriates who are

educated and left the country in the 1980’s have been

targeted by the regime for their anti-regime activities. Many

of them have been assassinated by the agents of the regimes

for raising opposition groups. They are playing active role

now in the internet to amass huge support for the Libyan

cause.In this critical juncture Ghaddafi has also alienated

the Libyan clergy who are now part of the revolt. In a recent

statement the network of Ulemas has condemned the use of

violence against the protestors.

Ghaddafi’s Libya or Libya’s Ghaddafi

Col. Muammar Ghaddafi toppled King Idris regime and

seized power on September 1, 1969. He had the help of his

own militia and the backing of other tribes. After the seizure

he never neglected those who supported him in the coup of

1969. Thus they remain loyal to him even today. He has not

allowed them to get strengthened and instead he has kept a

vigilant eye on the revolts inside Libya than the threats

from outside. Moreover his sons and the Al-Gadhafa

tribesmen control their own battalions and hold key

positions in the government.

The above situations defy the possibility whether Libya

can turn out to be the next in the house of cards to fall to the

public unrest. The fall of Muammar Ghaddafi and his regime

will not happen very soon as it occurred in Egypt and

Tunisia. Also the advantage of oil weapon which is the most

volatile one will make Libya less susceptible to international

pressure. The West will have to worry more than Libya if

Ghaddafi decides to shut down his pipelines to the

Mediterranean. It’s difficult to predict how it will end.

Revolutionary council: divided or united

The revolutionary council or the rebels fighting Col.

Muammar Ghaddafi seems to be not going hand in hand on

some issues. They have emphatically opposed foreign

intervention but are seriously considering to ask the

Western powers to strike key-military assets of Ghaddafi’s

army. They have added to this consideration that such airraids

fly under a UN banner.The unified decision on this consideration is yet to

come out. Some have shown their displeasure and

dissatisfaction that such air-strikes carry great risks. One

of the senior council official opined that he’d be happy if

Ghaddafi falls without intervention, but if he is going to

create a massacre his priority will be to save his people.

The council members who agree to the airstrikes want it to

be on a limited scale such as dislodging Ghaddafi from

crucial strongholds and radar stations.

On March 8, the rebels faced a setback in Zawiyah and

Ras Lanuf at the hands of Ghaddafi’s army. The opposition

council members have come out publicly with their

difference of opinions on foreign intervention. The

opposition’s capabilities will be decisive as they are having

troubles with the tribal division which the government plans

to exploit. Abdel Hafidh Ghoga, the deputy leader of the

provisional leadership has requested that international

community to start its duty. The situation seems to be

turning against the rebels as it looks like a mismatched

civil war.

In the initial stages effective weapons and plentiful

supply of ammunition added to the beauty of the

advancement. North Korean and Russian ammunition was

readily available. But these weren’t enough for them to

defend Ras Lanuf, a strategic refinery town.

Another feature of weakness of the rebels is with regards

to the leadership. Specialized branches of Libya’s army who

joined the fight have senior officers who are also seen at

the front. But the rebel soldiers include bankers, policemen

and the unemployed who are very much enthusiastic but

are hapless brigades.

No effective communication is visible between the

opposition groups and no leadership to take care of the

situation. Opposition groups in America, Europe etc. works

for themselves. Attempts to unify them have failed.

America and the Libyan uprising

US has been watching the uprising in the Middle East

and North Africa continuously. US officials have not

reached a decision on what position to be taken in Libya’s

case as they understand the consequences of the political

fallout if US again attacks a Muslim nation. Therefore they

are searching for other options to handle the situation.

US had intervened earlier in 2003 in a deal with

Muammer Ghaddafi to proliferate Libya of nuclear weapons.

The nuclear technology that Libya handed over to the US in

the 2003 deal was very large. There were more than 4000

centrifuges for producing enriched uranium. Also blue

prints for how to build nuclear bomb were also handed

over. Former president George W Bush said that with this

action Libya has resumed normal relations with the world.

Now as the rebels are begging for US strikers on the

Libyan troops and weapons so as to oust Muammar

Ghaddaffi US is considering options other than direct

interventions. The administration official said that

preparation for a passive operation like using signal

jamming aircraft operating in international airspace could

muddle Libyan government communication with its military

units are under way. Another tactic was to air-drop weapons

and supplies to rebels. Other options like inserting small

special operations teams, perhaps just a dozen drops to

assist the rebels. The support for a no-fly zone was voiced

both from the Democratic and the Republican senators.

The NATO’s positions on the use of armed force are not in

union. Russia has called the idea of a no-fly zone

‘superfluous’ and Turkey dismissed NATO military

interventions as unthinkable.

Libyan unrest and the oil world

Oil and petroleum which can be considered the mother

of all commodities is facing a crucial situation following

the unrest unleashed all over the Arab world. Libya which

is rich in oil resource has also not been exampled from the

crisis. The geographical positions of Libya also add to

European market commanded as important advantage over

Middle East oil. Also the country’s oil export pipeline runs

solely across the country’s own territory, making them less

vulnerable to damage.

But these advantages didn’t come to help when the

rebels started advancing in to major oil fields of Libya and

creating restriction on oil production. Several of the

refineries were left stricken by workers too afraid to go to

work. It might take weeks before normal production resume.

One of the main consequences of the Libyan uprising

is the shooting up of oil prices to $100 barrel again. Even

though the heavy weights like Saudi Arabia can make up for

the difference, it cannot be predicted for how long this will

continue. The balance between the supply and demand is

very delicate and it cannot withhold more disruption in

supplies.

Al-Qaeda and the Middle Eastern uprising

Don’t misunderstand that Al-Qaeda has something to

do with the unrest in the Arab regimes. In fact it has nothing

to do with it. Al-Qaeda who called for the downfall of the

Arab puppet regimes through extremism and violence has

faced a major setback. The demonstrators have shown the

world and the Al-Qaeda (if it exists) that autocrats can be

toppled by peaceful and non-violent means. They have also

treated Islam as an afterthought and embraced democracy

which are against the tenants of Al-Qaeda.

The existence and formation of Al-Qaeda needs to be

questioned here especially when Ghaddafi had alleged the

hands of Al-Qaeda behind the appraisals. Al-Qaeda is nowhere

in the picture of the changes happening in the Middle East. A

hypothesis can be this (that certainly require research to

reach any final conclusion) that Al-Qaeda was a creation of

US to serve their interests in the Middle East and when the

matters went out of their hands Al-Qaeda too had to be

submerged so that their interests are not exposed.