Iranian nuclear program and Israel’s unrest
Iran has been facing the declarations of war on the accusation of developing nuclear weapons. The accusation has now been echoed strongly by Israel. It has been trying to ignite the forest fire which can engulf the whole Arab world by the intention of attacking Iran. America on the other hand doesn’t want to interfere directly as they know that it will cost them much as their experience in Vietnam. But still they are giving silent support so as to put an end to Iran’s nuclear project.
Israel wants to handle the case of Iran in four methods. One is by strengthening the propaganda that the Iranian nuclear project is a threat to the humanity through the media, political circles etc. Second is by strengthening the economic sanctions against Iran. Thirdly is by murder the Iranian scientists involved in the nuclear project and bomb the military areas of Iran. Fourthly is by openly declaring the destruction of atomic energy manufacturing centers.
The first three methods have been continuing for a long time now. The fourth one is being discussed in the media. Ha’aretz reports a statement of Ehud Barack, the defense minister of Israel that the nuclear project should be stopped within one year or else Iran will have moved the enriched uranium to a safer location.
The allies of America – Britain, France and Germany are all on the same side of the court. But they don’t want a war as it will adversely affect their already crumbling financial sectors in these countries. All of them have gone ahead with economic sanctions and the decisions of rejecting the import of oil from Iran. Even though their policy was not stagnant in the Iranian case in the beginning at present they have shifted their policy in favour of Israel.
The Arab Spring which has sent shock waves to the dominance of America and Israel in the region have infact frustrated the position of Israel. Israel is also feeling the pressure of the Anti-Israel tendencies that is been spread around the Arab world. Israel will surely utilize this opportunity to start an attack against Iran and give a warning to those anti-Israeli trends and ensure their dominance in the region.
There are also some frustrations in the Arab camps with some of the Iranian stands in some cases. The support of Iran to the Syrian government, the interference of Iran in Iraq etc. fade the light of the creative and determined stands in the case of Palestine and against the American supremacy.
America, Britain, China, Russia and France who are the permanent members of the Security Council are the declared nuclear powers. India, Pakistan and North Korea have declared that they possess nuclear bombs. But Israel is the only country which has hidden its fact of possessing nuclear bombs.
Israel is the only country in the Middle East that is sitting on a huge pile of nuclear weapons. Israel has 200-400 nuclear bombs which can be attached to submarines and fighter planes. On Dec 12, 2006 Israel’s then Prime Minister Ehud Olmert in an interview with the German Television declared Israel’s possession of nuclear weapons; but the international community didn’t happen to be struck by this declaration. America said that without the official declaration of nuclear weapons by the State of Israel, no step can be taken against them. Iran has demanded that the whole Israeli project of nuclear reactors should be brought under the UN investigating agency. If Israel refuses to co-operate then the 7th section of the UN charter which declares punishment of economic sanctions and military interference should be applied by the UN.
The important atomic reactors of Israel had started its functioning in the early 60’s. CIA had discovered this in 1968. But still they continued their functioning for two decades. When the former technician of the Israeli atomic reactor Mordechai Vanoonu leaked this matter to the Sunday Times in a very suspicious manner in 1986, the world came to know of Israel’s hidden nuclear project. However Israel’s effort was to hid its mistake and attack the nuclear projects in the Middle East. They had the full-hearted support of America too. In June, 1981 in a combined attack of America and Israel, the atomic reactor started by Saddam Hussein in the 80’s was destroyed and erased from its location.
Iran’s claim
Iran’s nuclear program has been functioning since 1953. Infact America themselves had signed the agreement with Sha Riza Pehlavi during his reign. But when the tide of revolution turned matters upside down and brought down the fall of the Sha, America withdrew the pact. France and Germany who had promised help in the development of nuclear reactor also withdrew their support following the strong pressure from America.
Iran hasn’t till now declared that it will produce atom bomb. Tehran has made it clear that the nuclear program is purely for energy production. Infact the former director of the International Atomic Agency Muhammed Al Baraidi has made it clear that there is no evidence of Iran making any atom bombs. But America and its allies are making the scene worse by saying that Iran is heading in the production of the atom bomb. In 2010, Iran had made a declaration to pacify the western powers that it is willing to transport the uranium in their hands to Turkey. The agreement was signed in a discussion between Brazil and Turkey. But America and its associates are not ready to agree this too.
The building of nuclear reactors and the production of nuclear bombs are both different matters. There is no international law blocking any nation from producing nuclear energy. America is trying to misguide the world by saying that nuclear plant means nuclear bomb. America is the world’s biggest nuclear power in the world. Times magazine reports that America has so far conducted 1030 nuclear tests. The real issue is that America and its allies want only Israel as a nuclear power in the region. The rising of Iran as a nuclear power will affect the supremacy of Israel in the region. Israel will have to control its atrocities. America can’t continue their dominance as the world police in this region. At the same time, the main issue for the Muslim countries in the region especially the GCC countries is the dominance of Iran rather than the threat from Israel. America has succeeded to some extent in turning the issue in that direction.
Sanctions
From 2006 to 2011 in various phases under the supervision of America seven motions were brought against Iran on the nuclear issue in the UN. Six of them were considered with the applications of sanctions and their prolonging. Only in 2010, four Iranian nuclear scientists were killed in very suspicious manner and one was critically injured. Mustafa Ahmedi Roshan who was working in the uranium enrichment plant in Nathans was the latest victim. Iran has accused America and Israel for the killings of the scientists. In the latest incident of Roshan Iran accuses Azerbaijan for leaking the information to America.
Some bad news that has been originating in Iran for a couple of years is the accusations and allegations against Ahmedi Najad and the problems of interior department. We are yet to see the end results of all these in the coming parliament elections. The sanctions which effect the seven and a half population are an important and active topic of discussion. The sanctions have infact caused trouble to the Iranian people. But the experience of survival gained from the sanctions being imposed by America since 1979 has provided the fuel to withstand the new sanctions also. Not only has that America’s order not to buy oil from the second largest producer of oil been rejected by countries including India. Tehran exports 13% of its oil to India. Turkey has declared that it will continue to buy oil from Iran. Turkey buys two lakh barrels from Iran. China is the largest buyer of oil from Iran (22%). 18% of the oil of Iran is exported to the European countries. Iran calculates that in a situation where the European Union will face shortage of oil, it will lead to the failure of the sanctions.
Threat of war
Israel’s plan is to attack the uranium enrichment plant in Nathans, Fordo plants, reactors in Araq and the conversion plants in Isfahan. But this is not going to be an easy task which has been clarified by the American defense officials. The biggest block is that to reach Iran America will have to go through the air space of the countries who are not their allies. Bombs can be showered on the reactors that are functioning underground only after crossing thousands of miles and the defense mechanisms of Iran. There will be a need of 100 planes to accomplish the operation successfully.
Even though many are yelling to bomb Iran Lt. General David A Deptula who had headed the 1991 Gulf war and the operation in Afghanistan in 2001 warns them that it is not so easy to do so. Israeli planes can only enter Iran either through the air spaces of Turkey in the north, Saudi Arabia in the south or Jordan, Iraq in the middle. Jordan is the only country which has a kind of friendly relations with Israel. Iraq which had been under the occupation of America doesn’t have an effective defensive mechanism. Besides that after the withdrawal of the American troops in December, Americans have themselves withdrawn from the responsibility of the air space in Iraq.
Even though Jordan gives permission to Israel to pass through its airspace obstacles are still there. The American made F-15, F-16 warplanes will need a fuel capacity to travel 2000 miles if they intend to go, attack and comeback. Even if American made airborne planes which can refuel from the air can be used, Israel doesn’t have enough of them. Israeli planes can only attack Iran by jamming the air defense mechanism of Iran. Iran still has the 2010 air force defense mechanism after Russia had rejected the sale of new S-300 missiles. But the pentagon officials are stating that Iran’s missiles are a threat to the air force of Israel.
Another headache for Israel is that the missiles of Iran are capable of reaching the cities of Israel. The warplanes of Israel even though they would be able to penetrate the Iranian airspace cannot destroy the plant in Nathans because it is built underground up to 30 feet and also strongly concreted. The plant in Fordho is in between the mountains. The pentagon experts doubts whether the US made Bunker Buster bombs can be used effectively. The former democrat senator Charles F. Wald had demanded to Obama foreseeing these obstacles, the sale of the latest G.B.U kind of 200 bunker buster missiles and three airborne refueling aircrafts. In short when Israel is searching for every means to attack Iran many obstacles are still there on its way. We can hope that Israel will have the consciousness to realize that Iran is not Gaza or Lebanon as they had perceived earlier and act accordingly.
The implications of an attack on Iran cannot be calculated. What will be the reaction of Iran to the attack? Will Iran in turn attack the American naval and army bases in the Gulf? How will it affect the oil prices? What will be the reaction of Hizbollah soon after the launching of the attack? How will the Shia Arabs react to the attack? In the end will America be dragged into a war of which it is hesitant to start? As long as these implications hang as a democlas wall over the head of Israel, we can expect that the attacks may not take place soon.
The Companion, May 2012, Vol:6, Issue:12
